Fundamentals of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)Training by Tonex
Fundamentals of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) course provides an in-depth understanding of the principles, methodologies, and applications of PRA. Participants will gain the knowledge and skills necessary to conduct and interpret PRA studies for complex systems, evaluate risks, and inform decision-making processes. The course combines theoretical concepts with practical examples and case studies to enhance comprehension and application.
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to estimate risk by computing real numbers to determine what can go wrong, how likely is it, and what are its consequences.
This course outline provides a comprehensive overview of the fundamentals of PRA, ensuring participants gain a solid foundation in risk assessment techniques and their practical application in various industries.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the fundamental concepts and terminology of Probabilistic Risk Assessment.
- Familiarize yourself with the key steps involved in conducting a PRA study.
- Gain knowledge of various PRA methodologies, including fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, and probabilistic modeling.
- Learn to identify and assess potential failure modes, their causes, and their consequences in complex systems.
- Develop skills in estimating probabilities, consequence analysis, and risk quantification.
- Acquire the ability to interpret PRA results and effectively communicate risk information to stakeholders.
- Understand the role of PRA in decision-making processes, risk management, and safety improvement.
Audience:
This course is designed for professionals and practitioners involved in engineering, risk analysis, safety management, quality assurance, system design, and decision-making processes. It is suitable for individuals working in industries such as nuclear power, aerospace, oil and gas, transportation, manufacturing, and any field where risk assessment and safety considerations are critical.
Course Outlines:
Introduction to Probabilistic Risk Assessment
- Definition and scope of PRA
- Benefits and limitations of PRA
- Regulatory requirements and standards related to PRA
- Risk Assessment in Regulation
- What can go wrong?
- What are the consequences?
- How likely is it that something will go wrong?
- What performance is needed?
PRA Methodologies and Techniques
- Fault tree analysis (FTA)
- Event tree analysis (ETA)
- Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)
- Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)
- Markov models and Monte Carlo simulations
- Human reliability analysis (HRA)
- Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis
Data Collection and Analysis
- Types of data and data sources
- Data quality assessment and data validation
- Statistical analysis techniques
- Incorporating expert judgment and subjective data
Risk Assessment Process
- System boundary definition
- Failure mode identification and classification
- Probability estimation techniques
- Consequence analysis and severity assessment
- Risk quantification and risk metrics
Interpretation and Communication of PRA Results
- Interpreting probability and risk values
- Visualization techniques for risk communication
- Risk ranking and prioritization
- Presenting PRA results to stakeholders and decision-makers
Application of PRA
- Case studies and real-world examples
- PRA in nuclear power plants, aerospace systems, chemical plants, and others
- Level 1 PRA and core damage frequency (CDF)
- Level 2 PRA and Level 3 PRA
- PRA applications for medical devices safety improvement and risk management
PRA Integration in Design and Decision-Making Processes
- PRA in system design and modification
- Incorporating risk insights into decision-making
- Risk-informed decision-making frameworks
PRA Challenges and Future Developments
- Addressing uncertainties and limitations
- Emerging trends in PRA methodologies
Workshop: Process Hazard Analysis (PHA)
- Comparison of PHA Methods
- Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA)
- Preliminary System Safety Assessment (PSSA)
- System Safety Assessment (SSA)
- Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PrHA)
- Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Study
- Cause-Consequence Analysis (CCA)
- Bow-Tie Analysis (BTA)