Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Fundamentals, Techniques, and Applications Workshop by Tonex
This two-day, interactive workshop provides a deep dive into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodologies, exploring both foundational concepts and advanced techniques. Participants will learn to analyze risks in complex systems, apply quantitative methods to evaluate risk scenarios, and develop effective risk management strategies. Designed for professionals involved in risk assessment, system safety, and reliability engineering, this workshop combines lectures, case studies, and hands-on exercises for practical, actionable skills.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this workshop, participants will be able to:
- Understand the principles and scope of Probabilistic Risk Assessment.
- Apply PRA techniques to identify and quantify risks in complex systems.
- Develop fault trees, event trees, and perform failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to support PRA.
- Interpret PRA results to inform decision-making and risk mitigation strategies.
- Assess uncertainties and dependencies in risk analysis, including human and software reliability factors.
Intended Audience
This workshop is ideal for:
- Risk Analysts and Safety Engineers looking to expand their PRA knowledge.
- System and Reliability Engineers responsible for risk assessment in high-stakes or regulated industries.
- Project Managers and Decision-Makers seeking quantitative insights for risk-informed decision-making.
- Professionals in Nuclear, Aerospace, Defense, Automotive, and other industries where PRA is widely applied.
Workshop Outline:
Day 1: Fundamentals and Techniques of Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Session 1: Introduction to Probabilistic Risk Assessment
- Overview of PRA: Definition, history, and applications across industries
- Deterministic vs. probabilistic approaches
- Key components and workflow of PRA
Session 2: Basics of Risk Quantification and Probabilistic Modeling
- Risk quantification basics: Probability, frequency, and consequence
- Introduction to probabilistic modeling techniques
- Calculating failure probabilities and rates
- Discussion: Benefits and limitations of PRA
Session 3: Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
- Introduction to fault tree construction and analysis
- Techniques for identifying failure events and estimating probabilities
- Quantitative FTA: Calculating top-event probability
- Hands-On Exercise: Building a fault tree for a sample system
Session 4: Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
- Event tree methodology and application in PRA
- Calculating branch probabilities and outcomes
- Integration with FTA for comprehensive risk assessment
- Hands-On Exercise: Developing and analyzing an event tree for a risk scenario
Session 5: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
- FMEA in PRA: Identifying potential failure modes and their impacts
- Conducting a basic FMEA to support risk assessment
- Activity: FMEA workshop using a simplified system model
Session 6: Wrap-Up and Q&A
- Recap of Day 1: Key concepts and takeaways
- Open Q&A session to clarify concepts and share participant insights
Day 2: Advanced PRA Techniques and Applications
Session 7: Quantifying and Managing Uncertainty in PRA
- Sources of uncertainty: Data, model, and subjective uncertainty
- Approaches for uncertainty quantification in PRA (e.g., sensitivity analysis, Bayesian methods)
- Importance of considering dependencies in PRA models
- Discussion: Challenges in quantifying uncertainty and practical solutions
Session 8: Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)
- Importance of human factors in risk assessment
- Overview of HRA methods and techniques in PRA
- Techniques for quantifying human error probabilities
- Case Study: Application of HRA in a high-risk scenario
Session 9: Software Reliability and Cybersecurity in PRA
- Evaluating software and cybersecurity risks in PRA
- Methods for incorporating software reliability data
- Cybersecurity threat modeling and assessment in PRA
- Activity: Discussion on integrating cybersecurity into traditional PRA models
Session 10: Applications of PRA in Decision-Making and Risk Mitigation
- Using PRA results to support risk-informed decision-making
- Approaches for selecting and implementing risk mitigation strategies
- Cost-benefit analysis and prioritization of risk controls
- Case Study: PRA for decision support in a high-reliability industry
Session 11: Hands-On Workshop: Comprehensive PRA Exercise
- Participants will complete a comprehensive PRA exercise
- Developing a PRA model for a hypothetical system
- Identifying, quantifying, and evaluating risk scenarios
- Presenting findings and proposed risk mitigations
Session 12: Final Q&A, Key Takeaways, and Course Wrap-Up
- Review of main topics and methodologies
- Open discussion on challenges and best practices in PRA
- Certificates of completion and resources for continued learning