Length: 3 Days
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Probability and Statistics for Reliability and Reliability Growth

probability-statistics-image

Reliability growth is a projection of the reliability of a system, component, unit (or service) to some future development time.

This projection is based upon information currently available from predictions or prior experience on identical or similar systems.

Monitoring the reliability, the mean time between failures (MTBF) and the failure rate of the system, equipment or product also establishes a trend in the increase in the reliability, the increase in the MTBF or the decrease in the failure rate.

This is achieved with engineering, research, development, test-analyze-and-fix (TAAF) and/or test-analyze-and-redesign (TAAR) procedures until it passes its acceptance tests and/or is delivered to the end-user.

The use of reliability is especially important to the Department of Defense because a high percentage of defense systems fail to meet their reliability requirements. This is a serious problem for the DOD, as well as the nation.

A Reliability Growth Analysis can help you make strategic decisions by indicating whether your data measurements are random or if they follow a trend. The graphs produced by a Reliability Growth Analysis will show any time-dependent trends, allowing you to make decisions based on past behavior and predict how your data will behave in the future.

A reliability growth model can be useful in determining the reliability of a system. A reliability growth model is a numerical model of software reliability, which predicts how software reliability should improve over time as errors are discovered and repaired.

These models help the manager in deciding how much efforts should be devoted to testing. The objective of the project manager is to test and debug the system until the required level of reliability is reached.

Probability and Statistics for Reliability and Reliability Growth Course by Tonex

Probability and Statistics for Reliability and Reliability Growth is a 3-day hands-on course. Probability and Statistics for Reliability and Reliability Growth training bootcamp helps facilitate the foundation for engineers, designers, product managers, project managers, technicians and other professionals. Our multi-tier bootcamp curriculum guides participants through foundational industry knowledge to in-depth, hands-on experiential learning.

Reliability growth is dependent on Probability and Statistics for measuring and describing its characteristics.

Failure Distribution is a representation of the occurrence failures over time usually called the probability density function, PDF, or f(t). Cumulative Failure Distribution (CDF) is the cumulative version of the PDF.

If the CDF is unreliability of a product, then 1-F(t) must be the reliability. The most common distribution usually representing wearout situations, Normal Distribution.

Course Agenda

Principles of Reliability and Reliability Growth

  • Principles of Reliability
  • Reliability Key Concepts & Terminology
  • Design for Reliability
  • Probability and Statistics
  • Physics of Failure
  • High Accelerated Life Testing (HALT)
  • High Accelerated Stress Screening (HASS)
  • Reliability Scorecard
  • Operational Availability
  • Operational Mode
  • Mission Profile
  • Reliability Growth Analysis
  • Reliability Test Program Planning

Application of Reliability Growth

  • Repairable System Theory
  • Reliability Growth Planning and Management
  • Reliability Growth Planning
  • Reliability Data Analysis
  • Reliability Growth Tracking
  • Reliability Growth Projection
  • Software Reliability Overview
  • Example Reliability Growth Application
  • Reliability Growth Lessons Learned
  • Repairable System Analysis

Reliability Growth Models

  • Introduction
  • The Exponential Model
  • Reliability Growth Models
  • Modeling Process
  • Identifying Trends in Failure Data
  • Laplace Trend Test

Probability and Statistics

  • Basic Process
  • Normal Distribution
  • Exponential Distribution
  • Weibull Distribution
  • Binomial Distribution
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Hypergeometric
  • Classifying the Failure Model

Decreasing the Failure Rate

  • Attaining the Requirement
  • Factors Influencing the Growth Rate
  • Reliability Growth Management Control Processes
  • Assessment Approach
  • Monitoring Approach
  • Factors Influencing the Growth Curve’s Shape
  • Stages of the Development Program
  • Test Phases
  • Test Phase Reliability Growth
  • Timing of Fixes
  • Growth Curve Re-initialization
  • Shape Changes Due to Calendar Time
  • Reliability Growth Programmatic Concepts
  • Levels of Consideration for Planning and Controlling Growth
  • Analysis of Previous Programs
  • Reliability Growth Planning Concepts
  • Planned Growth vs.

Idealized Growth Curve

  • Other Planning Considerations
  • Threshold
  • Reliability Growth Tracking Concepts
  • Demonstrated Reliability
  • Reliability Growth Tracking Curve
  • Reliability Growth Projection Concepts
  • Extrapolated Reliability
  • Projected Reliability
  • Models Covered in this Handbook
  • Sources for Models Covered in this Handbook

Principals of Reliability Growth Planning and Management

  • Repair vs. Fix
  • Analysis of Failure Modes
  • Fix Effectiveness Factor (FEF)
  • Growth Potential (GP)
  • Growth Management Strategy (MS)
  • Growth Rate
  • Poisson Process
  • Homogeneous Poisson Process (HPP)
  • Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP)
  • Idealized Growth vs. Planned Growth Curve
  • Reliability Growth Tracking Curve
  • Reliability Growth Projection
  • Exit Criterion (Milestone Threshold)
  • Basic Model Approaches Covered
  • Planning Models Covered
  • Planning Model Limitations
  • Demonstrating Reliability Requirements with Statistical Confidence
  • Planning Areas
  • Reliability Growth Planning Checklist

Planning Models and Tools

  • Planning Models
  • United States Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA)
  • Planning Model based on Projection Methodology (PM2) Continuous
  • Planning Model based on Projection Methodology (PM2) Discrete
  • Subsystem Level Planning Model (SSPLAN)
  • Tracking Models
  • Reliability Growth Tracking Model (RGTM) Continuous
  • Projection Models
  • System Level Planning Model (SPLAN)
  • Planning Factors
  • Reliability Growth OC Curve Analysis

Planning Model Based on Projection Methodology (PM2)

  • Overview of PM Continuous Approach
  • Equations and Metrics
  • Plausibility Metrics for Planning Parameters
  • PM Continuous Example
  • Planning Model Based on Projection Methodology (PM)-Discrete
  • Equations and Metrics
  • PM-Discrete Example
  • Failure Mode Preclusion Considerations
  • Threshold Program

Reliability Growth Analysis and Assessment Tools

  • Reliability Growth Assessment
  • Managing Reliability Growth
  • Commitment and Involvement
  • Controlling Reliability Growth
  • Management’s Role
  • Basic Reliability Activities
  • Benefits of Reliability Growth Planning Assessment
  • Finding Unforeseen Deficiencies
  • Designing-in Improvement through Surfaced Problems
  • Reducing the Risks Associated with Final Demonstration
  • Increasing the Probability of Meeting Objectives
  • Practical Data Analysis Considerations
  • Reliability Growth Tracking
  • AMSAA Reliability Growth Tracking Model – Continuous (RGTMC)
  • Estimation Procedures for the Option for Grouped Data
  • AMSAA Reliability Growth Tracking Model – Discrete (RGTMD)
  • Subsystem Level Tracking Model (SSTRACK)
  • Reliability Growth Projection
  • Introduction
  • AMSAA-Crow Projection Model (ACPM)
  • Crow Extended Reliability Projection Model
  • AMSAA Maturity Projection Model (AMPM)
  • AMSAA Maturity Projection Model based on Stein Estimation (AMPM-Stein)
  • AMSAA Discrete Projection Model based on Stein Estimation (ADPM-Stein)

 

Request More Information

Please enter contact information followed by your questions, comments and/or request(s):
  • Please complete the following form and a Tonex Training Specialist will contact you as soon as is possible.

    * Indicates required fields

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Request More Information

  • Please complete the following form and a Tonex Training Specialist will contact you as soon as is possible.

    * Indicates required fields

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.